How the Simulator Works
This page explains the logic behind the estimates you see, so you can make smarter decisions. We keep the math transparent, conservative, and educational—it is not a replica of any proprietary scoring model.
1) What We’re Estimating
The simulator produces a directional estimate of how your score might shift when common credit events happen (for example, a missed payment or a utilization change). We start from your entered baseline score and apply weighted adjustments based on factors that typically influence credit scoring.
2) The Factors We Model
Payment History
Payment history is the heaviest lever. A fresh 30‑day late often causes a noticeable dip; 60/90‑day lates are more severe. A clean 12‑month streak is one of the strongest positive signals.
Credit Utilization
The ratio of reported balances to total limits on revolving accounts. We nudge estimates negative above ~30% and slightly positive when you’re under ~10%, especially for profiles below prime.
New Credit & Inquiries
Hard inquiries and newly opened accounts can cause small short‑term dips. Clustering mortgage/auto inquiries within a short shopping window can mitigate impact in some models.
Age of Credit
Average age tends to help when it’s higher. Opening a new account can trim average age temporarily; spacing applications avoids compounding the dip.
Derogatory Marks
Collections and bankruptcies are modeled with heavier negative adjustments. Time and clean history help recovery.
On‑Time Streak
We model a small positive reinforcement for recent on‑time payments (last 12 months) because momentum matters.
3) Our Heuristic Weights (Transparent)
We translate the controls you set into a simple scoring “delta.” These are the core weights used by the simulator (expressed as directional educational magnitudes, not official points):
| Factor | Heuristic Weight | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Utilization | Up to ~−60 → +12 (scaled) | Penalty grows progressively above ~30%; slight boost <10%. |
| Missed Payment | 30d: ~−18%; 60d: ~−28%; 90d+: ~−40% | Modeled as stronger negatives with severity. |
| Hard Inquiries | ~−4 per inquiry (capped) | Small, short‑term effect. |
| New Card | ~−3 | Small dip; may help utilization later. |
| Average‑Age Drop | ~−6 per year (capped) | We cap the impact to avoid outsized effects. |
| On‑Time Months | Up to ~+10 | Scaled by months out of 12. |
| Derogatory | Collection: heavy; Bankruptcy: heavier | Applied as larger negatives. |
4) Sensitivity by Starting Score
Profiles at lower scores can move upward faster with improvements, while high scores can be more rigid. We add a sensitivity multiplier to reflect this:
- Sub‑prime (<620): slightly higher sensitivity to improvements and penalties.
- Near‑prime (620–719): moderate sensitivity.
- Prime (720+): lower sensitivity—smaller visible swings.
5) Worked Examples (Walkthroughs)
Example A — Lowering Utilization
Start: 690 baseline, 58% utilization, no recent lates or inquiries.
Action: Pay down balances to 18% before statement cut.
Why it helps: Big utilization drop moves a high‑signal factor from a negative bucket to a neutral/positive bucket.
Example B — A Single 30‑Day Late
Start: 735 baseline, 12% utilization, 12/12 on‑time months.
Event: One new 30‑day late.
Impact: A noticeable negative dip. Recovery improves with a new on‑time streak and low utilization over 6–12 months.
6) Why Your Number Can Differ From “Real” Scores
- Different model versions (FICO® 8 vs. FICO® 10 vs. VantageScore).
- Different bureaus, report dates, and data furnishers.
- Unique profile details not captured by a simple simulator (closed accounts, charge‑offs, utilization by individual card, etc.).
7) Privacy & Data
This simulator runs entirely in your browser. We do not fetch your personal credit report and we do not perform any credit pulls. See the Privacy Policy for details about analytics and ads.
8) Calibration Philosophy
We designed the magnitudes to be conservative, and to teach directional cause‑and‑effect. If you lower utilization dramatically or avoid fresh derogatories, the simulator should reflect meaningful improvement—especially for profiles below prime.
9) Limitations (Read This)
10) Quick FAQ
No. The simulator never pulls your credit. Everything runs locally in your browser.
No. Lenders and bureaus use different versions; some even use custom overlays. Expect differences.
Both can matter. This simulator uses an overall knob; per‑card spikes can weigh more in some models.
11) Mini‑Glossary
- Statement Cut: The snapshot date when a lender reports balances.
- Goodwill Letter: A request to remove a late after a strong history.
- Thin File: A credit profile with few accounts or limited history.