How the Simulator Works
This page explains the logic behind the estimates you see, so you can make smarter decisions. We keep the math transparent, conservative, and educational—it is not a replica of any proprietary scoring model.
1) What We’re Estimating
The simulator produces a directional estimate of how your score might shift when common credit events happen (for example, a missed payment or a utilization change). We start from your entered baseline score and apply weighted adjustments based on factors that typically influence credit scoring.
2) The Factors We Model
Payment History
Payment history is the heaviest lever. A fresh 30‑day late often causes a noticeable dip; 60/90‑day lates are more severe. A clean 12‑month streak is one of the strongest positive signals.
Credit Utilization
The ratio of reported balances to total limits on revolving accounts. We nudge estimates negative above ~30% and slightly positive when you’re under ~10%, especially for profiles below prime.
New Credit & Inquiries
Hard inquiries and newly opened accounts can cause small short‑term dips. Clustering mortgage/auto inquiries within a short shopping window can mitigate impact in some models.
Age of Credit
Average age tends to help when it’s higher. Opening a new account can trim average age temporarily; spacing applications avoids compounding the dip.
Derogatory Marks
Collections and bankruptcies are modeled with heavier negative adjustments. Time and clean history help recovery.
On‑Time Streak
We model a small positive reinforcement for recent on‑time payments (last 12 months) because momentum matters.
3) Our Heuristic Weights (Transparent)
We translate the controls you set into a simple scoring “delta.” These are the core weights used by the simulator (expressed as directional educational magnitudes, not official points):
| Factor | Heuristic Weight | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Utilization | Up to ~−60 → +12 (scaled) | Penalty grows progressively above ~30%; slight boost <10%. |
| Missed Payment | 30d: ~−18%; 60d: ~−28%; 90d+: ~−40% | Modeled as stronger negatives with severity. |
| Hard Inquiries | ~−4 per inquiry (capped) | Small, short‑term effect. |
| New Card | ~−3 | Small dip; may help utilization later. |
| Average‑Age Drop | ~−6 per year (capped) | We cap the impact to avoid outsized effects. |
| On‑Time Months | Up to ~+10 | Scaled by months out of 12. |
| Derogatory | Collection: heavy; Bankruptcy: heavier | Applied as larger negatives. |
4) Sensitivity by Starting Score
Profiles at lower scores can move upward faster with improvements, while high scores can be more rigid. We add a sensitivity multiplier to reflect this:
- Sub‑prime (<620): slightly higher sensitivity to improvements and penalties.
- Near‑prime (620–719): moderate sensitivity.
- Prime (720+): lower sensitivity—smaller visible swings.
5) Worked Examples (Walkthroughs)
Example A — Lowering Utilization
Start: 690 baseline, 58% utilization, no recent lates or inquiries.
Action: Pay down balances to 18% before statement cut.
Why it helps: Big utilization drop moves a high‑signal factor from a negative bucket to a neutral/positive bucket.
Example B — A Single 30‑Day Late
Start: 735 baseline, 12% utilization, 12/12 on‑time months.
Event: One new 30‑day late.
Impact: A noticeable negative dip. Recovery improves with a new on‑time streak and low utilization over 6–12 months.
6) Why Your Number Can Differ From “Real” Scores
- Different model versions (FICO® 8 vs. FICO® 10 vs. VantageScore).
- Different bureaus, report dates, and data furnishers.
- Unique profile details not captured by a simple simulator (closed accounts, charge‑offs, utilization by individual card, etc.).
7) Privacy & Data
This simulator runs entirely in your browser. We do not fetch your personal credit report and we do not perform any credit pulls. See the Privacy Policy for details about analytics and ads.
8) Calibration Philosophy
We designed the magnitudes to be conservative, and to teach directional cause‑and‑effect. If you lower utilization dramatically or avoid fresh derogatories, the simulator should reflect meaningful improvement—especially for profiles below prime.
9) Limitations (Read This)
10) Quick FAQ
No. The simulator never pulls your credit. Everything runs locally in your browser.
No. Lenders and bureaus use different versions; some even use custom overlays. Expect differences.
Both can matter. This simulator uses an overall knob; per‑card spikes can weigh more in some models.
11) Mini‑Glossary
- Statement Cut: The snapshot date when a lender reports balances.
- Goodwill Letter: A request to remove a late after a strong history.
- Thin File: A credit profile with few accounts or limited history.
How to read the estimated score impact after each scenario
It's tempting to focus only on the final number, but the size and direction of each move matter more than the exact score.
- Small moves. Shifts of a few points usually reflect minor changes, like a statement closing with slightly different utilization.
- Medium moves. Larger jumps may signal bigger events, such as paying down a chunk of revolving debt or adding a new account.
- Major moves. Significant drops or gains are often tied to late payments, collections, or major utilization swings.
Use these patterns to decide which habits are worth focusing on for the next 3–12 months, not just the next week.
Building step-by-step strategies using the simulator
Instead of guessing, you can map out a simple sequence of moves and see how each one contributes to your long-term goal.
- Set a time frame. Choose a window—like six or twelve months—where you want to see progress.
- List possible moves. Paying down a card, opening a secured card, removing a dispute, or setting up autopay.
- Test the order. Run scenarios in different sequences to see which path looks most helpful and realistic.
- Write a simple plan. Turn the best sequence into 3–5 concrete steps you can actually follow.
When your plan is based on a clear model instead of guesswork, it's easier to stay consistent and patient.
Why score changes in the simulator won't always be linear
Real scoring models sometimes treat the same action differently depending on what your profile already looks like.
- Context matters. A new account can be riskier for a brand-new file than for someone with a long, stable history.
- Threshold effects. Dropping utilization below certain key ranges (like 30% or 10%) can have more impact than tiny shifts within a range.
- Combination effects. The same event can land differently if it happens alongside other changes.
That's why the simulator focuses on "more helpful vs less helpful" patterns rather than promising exact point moves.
Turning the simulator into a recurring financial check-in
You can fold the tool into a monthly or quarterly money ritual instead of viewing it once and forgetting about it.
- Monthly reviews. Once a month, plug in your current estimates and test the impact of one or two changes you're considering.
- Quarterly planning. Every few months, build longer scenarios tied to big goals like refinancing or moving.
- Yearly reflection. Look back at previous notes to see which habits actually moved the needle.
Treating the simulator as part of a routine makes credit planning feel less like a crisis tool and more like maintenance.
Pairing the simulator with a simple note log
Writing down what you test makes it easier to remember which strategies looked most promising.
- Record your baseline. Note your starting range and key details about utilization and accounts.
- Summarize each scenario. For every run, jot the changes you modeled and the approximate impact.
- Revisit before acting. When it's time to make a real-world move, reread your notes to confirm your plan.
This habit turns the simulator from a one-time curiosity into an ongoing planning tool.
Choosing which scenarios to explore first in the simulator
When you're not sure where to start, focusing on a few high-impact areas can make your time feel well spent.
- High balances. Test how different payoff amounts or timelines might change your picture.
- Upcoming applications. Model what would happen if you delayed or re-ordered new credit moves.
- Repair strategies. Explore how removing negatives or building positives might work over time.
Starting with your biggest questions makes the simulator feel immediately relevant.
Bridging the gap between simulator results and real life
The simulator gives you patterns and ranges; your job is to translate those into real-world behavior.
- Look for direction, not precision. Focus on whether a strategy seems more helpful or less helpful overall.
- Check against your budget. Make sure the steps you like also fit what you can truly afford.
- Adjust as you go. If real life differs from your model, update your plan instead of abandoning it.
The tool is a map—your day-to-day choices are the actual road.
Using the simulator to build confidence, not anxiety
Tools like this can either calm you down or stress you out more—the difference is how you use them.
- Limit session length. Decide how long you'll spend exploring instead of clicking endlessly.
- End with a summary. Write one or two sentences about what you learned each time.
- Translate into action. Choose one small behavior change to test before your next session.
When each visit ends with a clear takeaway, your confidence grows over time.